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So unless you were one the 25 managers in the fantasy football world to draft or pick up Kevin Ogletree before Wednesday, (like the man-genius Big-D in one of my leagues,) kudos.  If you were one of the 0.1% of all managers to START Ogletree, well, you must have been in a league where names pertaining to plant matter were required on every team.  I can imagine a league where the first round included the selections of A.J. Green, Reggie Bush, Michael Crabtree, Carson Palmer, and your man Kevin Ogletree.  After Wednesday's breakout performance that produced a line of 8-114-2, owners rushed to the waiver wire to put in a claim on him.  Here are some facts to consider about Ogletree that should help in your decision to add him or just ogle:

 - He is an undrafted, fourth year receiver who has played in 32 total career NFL games (including Weds.)

- Wednesday was Ogletree's first two touchdown catches of his NFL career.

- He is the third receiver on the depth chart of a team that features two running backs that can catch the ball and Jason Witten as the TE.

- The Cowboys play some very, very stingy pass D's this year.

- Ogletree steps into the role that Laurent Robinson played in a year ago.  Robinson put up a 54-858-11 line last year.  Robinson is owned in just 50% of leagues and is now a #1 WR in Jax..

- Ogletree had just a total of 117 catches, 1332 yds., and 9 total TD's in three years at Virginia.  That's an average of 39 catches, 444 yds., and 3 TD a season.

- Kevin's Wednesday night NFL break-out was almost a third of those numbers.

With that being said, Ogletree certainly looks to have the ability to thrive in a system that heavily favors slot receivers.  Remember this is a system that allowed the likes of Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, and Laurent Robinson to have career years, all of whom were more than rosterable during the years they played the Dallas slot position.  In my opinion, there are other guys I'd rather have on the wire (maybe even Robinson in Jax.), but Ogletree has definitely made himself a case to be owned in at least two-thirds of all leagues out there.  I think that guys like Robinson and Austin had a better pedigree, so they set loftier expectations for Ogletree at the position.  But remember that Robinson was a game-breaker at times, and put up some serious points in Dallas last year as the #3.  Temper your expectations on Ogletree and his breakout performance - it may well have been a career night - but go ahead and add him if guys like Santana Moss, Lance Moore, Greg Little, and Titus Young are gone already.  And don't forget that Sunday will bring plenty more surprises, so watch your waiver priority.  Expect a line that goes something like 48-725-9 for a season total (closest to that of Patrick Crayton's Dallas slot days with 50-697-7).  Just keep in mind that defenses will no longer let Ogletree roam free across the middle.  It'll be fun to see if he can adjust.


 
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The fantasy football draft season is winding to a close, as managers tidy up their rosters in preparation for the upcoming season.  One thing any good manager knows is that your team is never 'complete.'  There are always those one or two moves made in the beginning of the season that can change a team for better or for worse.  Sometimes not making a move is the good choice, but other times that one crucial move can alter a team positively all year.  I like to call it "constant tinkering," and any manager who has played in my leagues knows that I am always looking to improve my roster.  I usually reach the max-moves limit, but I also know that I am usually up for debate at the end of the year for best free agent pick-ups throughout the season.  Point is this: you can never be too prudent with your team.  Make that move you are considering.  Worst case is you make another move down the road to make up for a bad call earlier in the year.  I am compiling a list of players available in either of my two leagues, and trying to make a case for you to pick one of them up if they are also available in your league(s). 

"Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new." - Albert Einstein


Evan Royster RB Was. - Royster is only owned in 33% of Y! leagues, and it should probably be more.  With Tim Hightower injured and off the team, this opens the door for either Royster or rookie Alfred Morris.  Both are first round picks, Royster being a big, bruiser out of Penn State with some NFL experience under his belt.  With Cooley and Hightower gone, and Helu unproven, the 'Skins need some playmakers to step up.  This is a Shannahan offense, so it could be any of these three backs who steps up to the plate, but Royster is certainly more than capable.

Alshon Jeffery WR Chi - Jeffery is a big, physical, up-the-field threat in a perfect city to start what should be a fine NFL career.  I don't necessarily trust rookie WR's, especially those not taken in the first round, but Jeffery is certainly an exception.  At 6'3" 210, and starting opposite Brandon Marshall on a Bears team that has no O-line to speak of, Alshon could be your guy.  He is owned in just over a third of Y! leagues, and should see plenty of starting time with single coverage and an above-average QB throwing to him.  This kid has all the talent in the world, and if he is given to time to play consistently, should be a top 50 WR that might just go undrafted in your leagues.

Jared Cook TE Ten - Some of us don't even take a TE in our drafts.  TE is like the catcher in fantasy baseball.  You either break the bank on a top guy (Gronk, Graham, Gates) or skip it entirely.  In fact, one of my leagues just started carrying a mandatory TE position for the first time this year.  If you are one of those who neglected the TE position and are scrambling for an option this week, take a peek and see if Cook is available.  He is owned in 2/3 of all Y! leagues, but should be almost universally owned.  At 6'5" 250 and a second year quarterback at the helm, Cook could see in excess of 60 catches and a handful of TD's.  Cook is big, physical, and quick, and Locker will look to him underneath often.  In week 15 last year, with Locker in at QB, Cook caught 9 of Lockers 11 completions and accounted for 103 of Lockers 108 passing yards.  This might be the start of something special.

James Starks RB GB - I'm not a huge fan of Starks, and he burned me bad last season as a sleeper pick on a great GB offense.  But the guy has little standing in his way of at least a part-time starting gig.  With a full season under his belt, and if the chips fall right in Wisconsin, I.E. an injury or Alex Green not working out (which are not too far fetched), Starks could step in and gain some points for your team.  Don't hold your breath, but keep him on your watch list.  Any starter in Green Bay is worth your consideration.

Ed Dickson TE Bal - Dickson is going to be a matchup problem for any LB in the league if he can learn how to hold onto passes.  He has plenty of speed (4.59 40yd.) and tons of size and strength (6'4" 260) to succeed in the league.  If you need a tight end, or backup tight end for your team, take a peek at the 14% Y! owned Dickson.

Alex Smith QB SF - If you are looking for a backup quarterback in a deeper league right now, then turn to Alex Smith.  He is more of a game manager in San Fran, but has plenty of weapons around him, and should outproduce some of the QB's I've seen go late in drafts as backups.  Smith is owned in less than 50% of leagues, and put up 3100 yards and a 17/5 TD/INT ratio last year.  Add to that the fact that the 49ers brought in Manningham, Moss, and Jacobs for him to play with, and you got yourself a deep league backup QB option on the waiver wire.

DEEP LEAGUE SLEEPERS:

David Nelson WR Buf - OK, I know this isn't a guy you would run right out and grab, hell, he's only owned in under 10% of all leagues.  But I am a fan of this Bills team.  Their revamped D will give the offense many more opportunities, and that means more action for Nelson.  Big Dave is a 6'5" 220 lb. physical freak, much in the mold of a poor mans Vincent Jackson.  Nelson has enough speed to get down field, the size to box out defensive backs, and good enough hands to catch most of the passes thrown his way.  Nelson is not primed for the starting gig, but with Fitzpatrick throwing to him and Stevie Johnson taking double teams, look for Nelson to AT LEAST match his performance from a year ago.  Look for a 65-750-5 line as your un-drafted #5 WR.

Mohamed Sanu WR Cin - I think that eventually the Jerome Simpson departure in Cincy will have cleared a path for the 6'2" 210lb Sanu.  The gifted receiver out of Rutgers was a third round pick in the past draft, and there is not much on the Bengals roster in his way.  Sanu had 115 receptions in college last season, and will compete with Brandon Tate for a starting gig across the field from A.J. Green on what seems to be shaping up as a potent Cincy offense.



 
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    The NFL season is scheduled to start next week, so in short it's about time to post my predictions for the year.  This past off-season there were several headlines that will play a big part in the standings this year.  We saw Peyton Manning take his act (and repaired neck/shoulders) to Denver.  RG3 and Andrew Luck were all of the hype at this years draft and could pay major dividends to their respective teams.  We saw the Bills defense beef up, Josh McDaniels reunite with Brandon Lloyd and bring in Greg Salas to New England.  Jahvid Best is already injured, Chad Johnson and T.O. have already been cut from their teams, and Tebow is in the Big Apple. 
     It's hard to pick any other teams than the Patriots, Texans, and 49ers in their divisions.  The AFC South is looking like a college football division.  The Patriots have brought in some outstanding pieces to add to their lethal offense, and their D has been beefed up as well.  The 9ers don't have too much competition in the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams, but you never know who will surprise.
    Without further ado, I will provide my outlook on the season, as well as some sleeper teams, teams on the rise, and teams on the decline.
    Call me crazy, but one team that I think will take it to another level this season is the Buffalo Bills.  Fitzpatrick is an amazingly smart quarterback, who knows how to manage a clock.  He has some very solid WR's in Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones, and David Nelson is a great possession receiver.  Spiller and Fast Freddy are good backs.  I think with their revamped D (Kyle Williams, Mario Williams) and Chan Gailey finally getting comfortable with this team, they will surprise.  I also like the Cheifs, Redskins, Buccaneers to all improve with new coaching, new players or both.  I think Peyton Hillis makes a bid for comeback player of the year, and Cam Newton settles down and bit and we see some sophomore struggles.  The Broncos, even with Peyton Manning could be the worst team in the playoffs, simply because of the division they are in and I think Manning slows down toward the end of the season.  Robert Griffin III outplays Andrew Luck in their first years, only because of the better team that he is taking over the helm for.  Give the Colts a couple more years to get back on their feet, and they will be laughing all the way to the bank as the Broncos pay Peyton Manning and cringe with each hit on him. 
    I think this is the year that the Eagles finally play the way they are supposed to have been all along, and I think that Aaron Rodgers finally shows that he is human, as he can't carry the Packers by himself.  They are getting old on D, and they have no running game to speak of. 
    I think that Robert Griffin III, Doug Martin, and Alshon Jeffery have the best chance at winning the Offensive ROY this year, as they both step into great situations: Cutler will look Jefferey's way often as Marshall is double teamed.  I think Alshon is a All-Pro in the making.  Griffin III as I said earlier, is a great bet to transition the smoothest of this draft class, but Shanahan has a way of tangling an offense up.  Doug Martin is in an unbelievable situation in Tampa Bay, as he is running behind one of the best lines in football, and has been given the keys to the Tampa Bay hypothetical car.
    My favorite two players for Defensive ROY this year has to be Chandler Jones in New England and Luke Keuchly in Carolina.  Jones is rushing the quarterback on an unbelievably talented NE front seven.  Jerod Mayo, Wilfork, Hightower, Cunningham etc. will all lead the way, leaving single coverage for the 6'5" 270 speedster on the edge.  Look for 10+ sacks from Jones.  And I'm not joking.  The kid is for real.  Keuchly is an extraordinary linebacker coming out of Boston College in this years draft.  He had more than 190 tackles last year, and should crack 100 in the NFL level.  He has a great mentor back in Carolina in Jon Beason, who should clear space for Keuchly to roam free.  Keuchly could single-handedly help carry Carolina to a playoff spot in his rookie season.
    This is the year the Patriots bring the trophy to New England.

AFC East:
1. NE Patriots 12-4
2. Buffalo Bills 10-6
3. NY Jets 8-8
4. Miami Dolphins 5-11
   
    The Pats should have no trouble putting this division away.  They have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.  The Bills finally contend this year and secure a wild card spot.  Tebow is not the answer in NY with an awful Jets offense.

AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
2. Baltimore Ravens 9-7
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
4. Cleveland Browns 6-10

    This division is going to be gritty, for sure.  The Ravens and Steelers should be a lock for the playoffs, but the Bengals could seriously surprise if their cards are played right.  I think the Bengals edge out the Steelers for the W.C. spot.  The Browns improve with a new qb and lawfirm carrying the ball.

AFC South
1. Houston Texans 12-4
2. Tennessee Titans 8-8
3. Indianapolis Colts 6-10
4. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

    This could be the softest division in football.  Unless the Titans play strong, the Texans should be one a few sure-fire locks to make the playoffs.  They need AJ and Schaub to stay healthy though.  The Jags and Colts will struggle to find wins this year, but Luck is a champion at QB.

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos 10-6
2. Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
3. Oakland Raiders 7-9
4. San Diego Chargers 6-10

    The AFC West could be a very tricky division this year.  Peyton has a great situation in Denver this year, but I don't think he will necessarily work wonders.  The Chiefs have a solid D, and I think this is a great landing spot for Peyton Hillis.  Oakland and the Chargers should cancel each other out, and I think inexperience and injuries could affect these teams.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles 12-4
2. NY Giants 11-5
3. Washington Redskins 9-7
4. Dallas Cowboys 7-9

    The NFC East is probably the most competitive division, and I don't think any of these teams will have a losing season.  The Eagles have one of the best D-Lines and secondaries in football, and the Giants and Tom Coughlin know how to win.  The Cowboys seem to be in a tailspin and the Skins will continue to improve as RG3 learns the NFL game.


NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers 11-5
2. Chicago Bears 11-5
3. Detroit Lions 9-7
4. Minnesota Vikings 5-11

    Another very tough division, I liken this one to the AFC North - cold, gritty, muddy, defense first football.  The Bears and Packers could tie in this division because I am not sold on the Packers running game, and the Bears have only slightly improved their O-Line.  The Lions cannot continue to rely on solely Stafford and Megatron.  They need to continue to shore up the D and running game very soon.

NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons 12-4
2. New Orleans Saints 10-6
3. Carolina Panthers 9-7
4. Tampa Bay Bucs 8-8

    I like the Bucs more than this if they played in most other divisions.  The Falcons are just about unstoppable with that offense.  I think the Saints take a step back this season but they could play somewhat inspired after the scandal last season.  Cam Newton is good, but not good enough to carry this team to the playoffs.  Steve Smith is getting old.


NFC West
1. San Fransisco 49ers 10-6
2. Seattle Seahawks 7-9
3. Arizona Cardinals 6-10
4. St. Louis Rams 5-11

    The 9ers are not the best team in the league on paper, but they play inspired football and are coached very well.  They have a very touch schedule, too.  The rest of this division is a jumbled mess of problems and question marks.  Seattle is a tough place to play and that should be the saving grace for the Seahawks this year.  This division has the toughest schedules in football in my opinion.

AFC:
Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills over Denver Broncos

NE Patriots over Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans

Patriots over Bengals


NFC:
Chicago Bears over NY Giants
Green Bay Packers over San Fransisco 49ers

Atlanta Falcons over Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears over Philadelphia Eagles

Falcons over Bears

SUPER BOWL:
Patriots 31
Falcons 27





 
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    Sitting at Patriots training camp this past Sunday I got the excitement for the start of the NFL season that I've been patiently waiting for.  Even more important, I was reminded that the start of the fantasy football season was even closer. 
    While we can all (well, almost all) enjoy muddy, rainy, mud-bowl games in September, the games that make Thanksgiving a little less blah, and hot totties while watching the games in January - some of us enjoy flipping on NFL Redzone and indulging in more football stats and highlights than the brain can possibly handle every Sunday.  12:45pm on a football-season Sunday is like Easter when you are five, or St. Patty's day when you are 22 for us fantasy freaks. 
    I find it funny that even the people that mock me about being a fantasy sports player get sucked in every once in a while.  My wife tells me not to draft Mike Vick because he will let me down again and she doesn't like the way he treats animals.  My father in law asks me how fantasy sports works twice a year, and my best friend tells me every year that when he gets his own computer he'll own my league with some beginners luck.  Even my five year old nephew got his very own Brady jersey and has already asked me to watch pre-season football with him.
    Thing is, it's fun for all of us to pay attention to football, whether all of the time of some of the time, to the offseason dramas of Ochocinco, Randy Moss, and Brandon Marshall.  It's fun for some of us to vicariously follow another persons fantasy team and root for guys like Peyton Hillis and A.J. Green, even though we don't really have our own.  And it's fun for some - like the two crazy ladies in the front row of training camp last Sunday yelling for Gronk to "show us his ass just once" for four hours.
    Either way you slice it, this time of year brings most of us all at least some excitement. 

    With that being said, it's time to start writing some fantasy advice for those who really, deep down inside, give a shit.  I've picked out a few guys who could surprise for your team with a late round pick or two.  Cheers to a healthy, happy fantasy football season.

C.J. Spiller BUF - The bite-sized Buffalo Bill carried the ball 85 times in the last six games with the Bills last year and scored three times.  He could be in for more work going forward, and with the Bills revamped and upgraded D, they will certainly want to run more.  Think Darren Sproles lite.  600 yards rushing  and 400 receiving.

Colby Fleener IND - This rookie TE has already worked at length with Luck in college, and with Tamme and Clark gone, the position is all his.  With such a bad offense in Indy, Fleener will look to be Luck's release valve over the middle when times get rough.  I expect to see close to 700 yards and a fistful of TD's when all of the big name tight ends are long gone. 

Shane Vereen NE - Vereen was the number 5 running back on the Pats depth chart a year ago, and this year he looks to be the #2.  With lawfirm gone, Faulk retired, and an already-ousted Addai, Vereen has the smooth-running ability, and the vision to find holes in the line.  The former second round pick out of Cal should be good for a season close to that of Ridley a year ago with more receptions out of the backfield.  400 yards rushing, 250 receiving with a couple of big time touchdowns.

James Jones GB - Jones has quietly put up some sneaky WR4 numbers over the past couple of seasons, and with Driver another year older and Rodgers throwing to him, expect those numbers to climb a bit.  The Packers are thin at RB and Finley can't stay healthy.  Take a very late round gamble on 50-750-6 with Dub J.

Jay Cutler CHI -   Cutler?  You ask.  Yes.  Cutler is slipping deep into drafts, going after the likes of Schaub, Ryan, Eli, and Roethlisberger - but could post better numbers than all of them.  There are some fresh faces on the O-Line, and the additions of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery will certainly help his cause.  Take Cutler as your second QB and feel confident if your starter goes down.

Santana Moss Another seasoned veteran on this list.  I took Moss with my 16th round pick in both leagues this summer.  And he will bring dividends for that price as a backup/bye week player.  Moss is just one year removed from a 93-1115-6 season, and the addition of Garcon will help take some of the pressure off this year.  Oh yeah, and this RG3 guy is light years better than Rex Grossman.  Pay the absurdly low price for Moss and be happy.

Some other names to look for late:  Titus Young, WR, DET... Isiah Pead, RB, StL... Sidney Rice, WR, SEA... Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT... Tony Gonzalez, TE, ATL... Michael Floyd, WR, ARZ... Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN... Alex Smith, QB, SF... Toby Gerhart, RB, MIN... Jacob Tamme, TE, DEN... Laurent Robinson, WR, JAX... Andrew Luck, QB, IND

 
Sometimes we win, other times we lose.  That's the fun thing about fantasy sports (well not the losing part).  In one of my keeper leagues I am getting demolished thanks in part to my bonehead play of moving David Wright for Michael Young and Adam Wainwright.  In the other keeper league (roto), I am battling for the top three spots with some good competition, thanks in part to an outfield comprised of Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, CarGo, and Rios.  It's just about time to start thinking about keepers and young studs who will be able to help out more next season.  Take a long hard look at some of these hitters if they are available on your waiver wire.

Catcher - This is the year of the power hitting catcher.  From Salty in Bos., Pierzynski in CWS, to the usual suspects.  There are still some great options available and a couple that may be worth hanging onto.

Wilin Rosario - This guy is just 23 years old and is producing out of the catcher position on a struggling Rockies team.  He has 17 bombs already to go with 3 sb.  Look for him to put up 25-30 HR next season in a full time gig.  He should be available surprisingly in 3/4 of leagues.

Yasmani Grandal - Another 23 year old stud catcher in the making.  He came over in the huge haul that SD got for Latos last year.  He is currently on the DL but has plenty of power and will shape up to be a top 5 catcher in the years to come.  Grab him and stash him.


First Base - A ton of borderline first basemen have stepped up and filled in for injuries this season.  Freeman and Goldschmidt have proven to be everything they were hyped to be.  You probably can't scoop a keeper-worthy 1b right now but take a look, you might find something worthwhile.

Anthony Rizzo - He has been traded twice already and seems to have found his home in Chicago with the Cubbies.  Anyone who has been traded for Adrian Gonzalez, then Cashner is worth looking into.  RIzzo has ridiculous patience at the plate for a 22 year old, and is only owned in ~50% of leagues.  Run and grab him now.


Second Base - I knew second was deep heading into the start of the season, and there are currently 7 2B inside the top 100 and that leaves out Pedroia, Zobrist, and Uggla.  There are a few guys who might be worth stashing for a late round keeper next year.

Jose Altuve - The 5'5" hype in Houston is available in 30% of leagues right now, and could pay big dividens moving forward.  He has a great eye, and a quick bat.  Don't forget the speed.  He has 19 sb already to go with a .300 average.

Alexi Amarista - This is the guy who came over to SD for Ernesto Frieri in May.  Since then he has shown decent pop (5 HR)  and the ability to steal some bags (4 sb).  He should continue to develop and be a staple in the SD middle infield for some time.  The "little ninja" is just 23 and will get better with time.


Shortstop - This is the position to grab a young minor leaguer if you are struggling in your league.  There are a few SS on the top of the prospect list for late 2012/2013.  I will just list a few of them.. as most if not all of these young players have not seen a major league at bat.

Jurickson Profrar TEX - Ranked as the #4 prospect in scoutingbook.com can switch hit and is willing to play most any position on the field.  Keep him on your watch list.

Manny Machado BAL
- Patient, free swinger shows tons of potential for 2013/2014.  He has struggled with injuries, but looks to have a killer power/speed combo in the minors.

Billy Hamilton CINSwitch hitting, speed demon is how we can describe this guy.  Stole 103 bases for A ball in 2011 and has already stolen 104 this season.  Ridiculous.  Could be up this year.


Third Base - With 13 top 100 players at 3b this year, the competition is thick, and keepers are probably already set.  With Wright, Miggy etc. you might not want to find a young stud and keep him. 

WIll Middlebrooks - Now that Boston traded Youk away, Middlebrooks will have the hot corner all to himself.  He is no wonder in the field, but has major power potential and won't hurt you in average.  He should put up 25-30 HR next season as he continues to develop at the plate with a .300 average.

Miguel Sano MIN - He is owned in 0% of leagues, but the Twins made it clear that he was their third baseman of the future.  He K's a ton, but also gets on base 36% of the time and has lots of power.  He will be eligible at ss/3b when he arrives in 2013/2014.


Outfield - There are always plenty of options here, as the outfield produces a ton of keeper players year in and year out.  You have already missed the boat on Mike Trout, but there should be a few guys on his heels next season.

Lorenzo Cain - One of many KC young guns should follow suit with Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer (sometimes Gordon.)  He has already been called up and will get plenty of playing time moving forward.  He has shown the capability to put up a .280-80-20-80-20 type of line.  Not bad for a late round keeper in the OF.

Will Myers KC - Myers is a former minor league catcher who has been moved to the OF.  The Royals plan on bringing him up late this year, and might show some keeper value.  He is just 21 and comes wrapped in a 6'3" 200lb frame and is a "dirt dog" in every sense of the word.  Look for patience at the plate coupled with lots of power potential.

Brett Gardener Gardener's season has been a disaster this year.  Injuries have kept him out almost the entire season, and probably wont be back this year.  When he is good and healthy next season, he could pay big dividends for those who stashed him this year.  He is capable of a .275 average with 50 or so SB.  And he won't kill you in the power/run producing departments.

Starling Marte There was lots of hype when this guy got called up for PIT and hit a HR in his first major league AB.  He is still owned in under 25% of leagues and could put up eerily similar numbers to Lorenzo Cain.  For those that want a cheap, young OF candidate with lots of potential, go grab this guy and see what he does the rest of the way.

Yonder Alonso - The centerpiece in the Latos deal, Alonso is having difficulty adjusting to the spacious confines of PetCo park.  Eligible at both 1b/OF, Alonso could be a great option for struggling teams.  He has come around in hitting major league pitching and is heating up as the year progresses.  He is more of a gap hitter, though (7th in doubles in MLB,) and should hit for a decent average.  Think David Wright or Andre Ethier here (not saying they are all three equal by any means.)

Jorge Soler CHC
-  This guy is not even in standard fantasy leagues yet, but make sure you keep your eye on him.  Word is that this Cuban outfielder is even better than Cespedes, and at 19 is still a long way away from making the majors.  The Cubs did a great job bringing him in, and I think he is in control of his own destiny.  He should be up late next season or 2014, but could bring some major, major power and speed to Chicago.  You have been alerted.





 
There have been several key injuries and staffing changes in bullpens throughout the league this week.  Several teams lost relievers to injures, both freak of nature and not.  Other teams have simply had enough with guys just not doing their jobs.  Here's a look at some of them just in time for the upcoming week, though in most tough leagues, these guys are long gone:

Yankees - The craziest injury I've seen in a long time happens to one of the consummate closers of our time.  Mo Rivera, even though he is part of the enemy empire, has been both solid and reliable almost two decades.  He went down shagging balls before the start of one of his games this week.  Diagnosis: torn ACL.  This could be the end of a better word, an empire.  Stepping in for him could be both David Robertson and Rafael Soriano.  Robertson has killer stuff, and as I've mentioned before will rack up both K's and now saves.  Soriano could get a chance as well, and he too could shine in the role.

Marlins - Heath Bell has been horrible this year.  He must really miss Petco Park.  He's blown 4 saves this month and sports an 11 ERA.  Look for a trial run for both Steve Cishek, a young righty from Falmouth, MA who sports a 2.09 ERA and 73 K's over 73 career innings.  Ed Mujica will also get a look, but he doesn't strike out enough guys and seems to be having some control issues.

Cubs - Carlos Marmol has given up 6 runs and 12 walks over 8.2 innings this season, so old friend Dale Sveum is putting the ixnay on him closing out games.  Look for lefty James Russel and righty Rafael Dolis to get the nod when the Cubbies seldom win.  Russel has 8 K's and just 1 ER allowed through 8.1 IP.  Dolis is a giant on the mound, but does not have the strike throwing pedigree teams look for in a closer.  Kerry Wood is not the answer here.  Move along from this situation.

White Sox - Matt Thornton is pitching decently enough, but he is just too hittable these days, and Hector Santiago has given up 4 homers in 7.1 IP so he's not working as a fireman.  That would normally grant Addison Reed his chance at the job, and with a 0.00 ERA and an 11/3 K/BB ratio he rightfully should.  However, newly anointed starter Chris Sale has reported elbow tenderness so the Sox think it is the best move to put him back into the bullpen and hand him the closer role.  Sale should do fine in the role, as long as his arm holds up
 
As most of you know, I strongly support rolling with at least one middle reliever on your team - for many reasons.  For starters, they are usually available in most leagues.  Secondly, they will ABSOLUTELY contribute to multiple categories over the course of the season.  In my 10 team ROTO auction league, I have actually employed 3, count 'em THREE middle relievers: Kenley Jensen, Johnny Venters, and Aroldis Chapman.
Jensen (62%owned) LAD - Has had a little trouble with the long ball, but the Dodgers are winning games, and that means Jensen is protecting leads.  He has pitched 10 innings, gathering two wins, a 3.60 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP and 17 K's.
Venters (52%) ATL - This guy is probably the most underrated player in fantasy sports.  He continues to pile onto a huge year from a season ago with 5.2 IP, 9K's, 0.00 ERA.  He has allowed baserunners, but as long as they don't score there should be no problems with him.
Chapman (72% CIN - By far one of the hottest pick-up's in the game right now.  The guy has been flat out dominant thus far.  He has pitched 9 innings of scoreless ball, racking up a whopping 17 K's, and a 0.33 WHIP.  That's with NO WALKS!!

Between the three, we can see 24.2 IP, 43 K's, 5 wins, 0.72 ERA, and a 0.85 WHIP.  If you package the three together, you are most certainly looking at the best pitcher in baseball.  Hands down.  Go out and take a long hard look at the available middle relievers in the game right now.  Here are a few who may be available in your league:

Henry Rodriguez (45%) - He is closing for Washington right now but could carry lots of value even from the set up role.  7.1 IP 0 runs, 9 K's.

Tom Wilhemsen (6%) - 10 IP, 12 K's, 1 W for the lowly Mariners.  He should be owned in at least a quarter of leagues.

David Robertson (36%) NYY - This guy should be owned in more leagues for sure.  Great team, great situation, lots of K's.  8 IP, 11 K's, 0 ERA.
 
After becoming the youngest Blue Jays starter to record a win since 1979, the fantasy world quietly took notice.  Skipping AAA at age 21, the young Venezuelan pitcher was overshadowed by the likes of several more expensive fantasy youngsters:  Strasburg, Hellickson, and Moore to name a few.  But being in the AL East should be no problem for Alvarez, as he has maintained a sub 1.8 HR/9 ratio, a 53% GB rate, and a 66% strike rate - all above average.  He is not a power pitcher, but more or a finesse guy.  To quote Baseball Prospectus 2012 "Alvarez sits in the mid-90s with his fastball (which has electric late movement), geneRates plenty of ground balls, and has an advanced changeup."  He has a 42:9 K:BB ratio over 11 starts in the Majors.  He also sports a 3.35 ERA and a 1.10 whip through those games, and should continue to grow this year.  Remember the kid is only 21, and the prospectus says "He’ll be slotted into the back end of the rotation next year, but his ceiling is considerably higher than that."  Is this a Justin Upton on the mound in the making?  Could be, but for this season look for more along the lines of 10-12 W, a sub 3.75 ERA, a sub 1.20 WHIP and 135 K.  After tonights start against the Red Sox, allowing just a solo bomb to Pedroia, I am convinced; this young stud reeks of keeper potential and value.  Let Hendo's 42/9 K/BB over 69.3 career innings speak.  Pick him up now.


 
There were lots of moves this offseason.  Capped by Pujols signing on with the Angels, and Prince Fielder joining the Tigers.  V-Mart and Ryan Madson are out for the season, and Andrew Bailey is already out until July with an elbow injury.  We're just 5 minutes away from the start of the '12 baseball season, and here are my predictions.

AL EAST
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

I see the Jays beating out the Rays, mostly in part to some guys falling short/getting injured in Tampa.  I love the young pitching staff the Rays have, but watch out for the Jays, led by Joey Bats and some nice young pitchers.  I think the Jays could push for the wild card.

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians

I just don't think Ubaldo Jiminez is the answer in Cleveland.  The White Sox are in a rebuilding year, with some old pieces kicking around.  Dunn and Rios do just enough to keep them out of the cellar.  The Tigers run away with this division and could be the best team in baseball.

AL WEST
1. LA Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A's

The A's are a triple A team this year.  They have some nice young pieces, but when Coco Crisp is leading the attack, they have no chance.  The Angels and Rangers both make the playoffs, just beating out the Rays.  Seattle could see a spark from a better year from Ichiro, Ackley getting better and Felix leading the way.

Wild Card
Red Sox over Rangers

Red Sox over Tigers
Angels over Yankees

Angels over Red Sox


NL EAST
1. Miami Marlins
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. NY Mets

If Josh Johnson can stay healthy, the new-look Marlins will push for the East title.  The Phillies hang tight and get the wild card in part to some great pitching.  I don't have the Braves as high as most people, but I am not a fan of this team this year.  The Nationals get better, but not much, and the Mets are in the basement due to some injuries and no pitching.

NL CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

The Cardinals should make the wild card, but I think this is the year for the Reds.  Plus this division lost Pujols.  I don't think they can do it this year.  The Reds have some decent pitching and a heck of an offense.  The Brewers are hurt by the spotlight of the Braun scandal and the loss of Prince.  The Astros and Pirates are a joke.

NL WEST
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Colorado Rockies
4. LA Dodgers
5. SD Padres

I could possibly see 3 teams make it in from this division.  Depending on how the Cardinals handle the loss of Big Albert.  The Diamondbacks are as good as they are young.  This is a fun team to watch.  I like the Rockies led by Tulo and Cargo.  Will it be enough?  The Dodgers have Kershaw, but not much else outside of a nice bullpen.

Wild Card
Phillies over Diamondbacks

Giants over Phillies
Reds over Marlins

Reds over Giants

Angels over Reds

I think the Angels have what is takes this year.  They have three Aces (Haren, Weaver, Wilson), they have the best hitter in baseball, and 4 all star caliber outfielders.  I love the Reds this year, I think the addition of Latos, with Cueto stepping up as a dominant ace should help.  That offense can be scary if Heisey continues to develop.  Phillips is the proVotto is a beast.  All in all I'd like to say my beloved Red Sox make it, but I just don't see it happening this year.  I think Valentine is the perfect guy for this position. 

 
Last season, I tried a new strategy in my 10 team auction-keeper-roto league.  I picked up a couple of solid middle relievers, namely Sean Marshall and David Robertson.  I went on to win the league, thanks to a strategy designed to maximize pitching totals in an innings-max league.  Between Marshall and Robertson I accumulated 142.3 IP, 10-6, 6 SV, 179K, 1.89 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP.  They allowed 27 runs between them ALL SEASON!  That line right there would make for a first or second round starter right there.  Here is a look at some of the better middle relievers that might be available in your league (less than 10% owned in Y! leagues) :

1. David Hernandez, Ari - Every single one of this 26 year old's stats are trending in the right direction over the last three seasons.  He should be the go to guy should Putz falter or get injured.  Look for 10 or so saves, a 3.00 ERA, and more than a K per inning. 9% owned.

2. Antonio Bastardo, Phi - As with Hernandez, this guy has improved each year in the bullpen over the past three seasons.  1.15 K/IP is nice, and the opportunity to close, should Papelbon go down might  net a sub 3 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and a handful of saves.

3. Fautino De Los Santos, Oak - This guy had lots of buzz this pre-season, but has been told he will not close immediately.  Should fragile Fuentes' arm fall off and Balfour, who is unproven in the 9th hits a snag in the road, De Los Santos is your man.  He averaged 1.29K/IP last season.  (Watch the last 30 seconds of the following video).

4. Koji Uehara, Tex - With Mike Adams and Joe Nathan aboard, the overlooked Ranger could be the lone Ranger in the bullpen to post a sub 2.00 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP, and 100 K this year.  I like.

5. Joel Peralta, TB - I like Peralta more than Farnsworth in the Rays bullpen.  He could have the closer job by the end of the year.  With a 2.93 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP last year with a K/IP, he should continue to still be extremely serviceable.

BONUS: Al Albuequerque, Det - I liked this guy last year before an arm injury cost him some time last season and into July this year.  A nice stash on the DL, Al-Al should have some buzz come late June/July if Valverde gets injured and/or Benoit falters.  Hitters swung and missed on 25% of his sliders last year.